Springtime for Stillbirths in Germany
Don't be stupid, be a smarty, come and join the vaccine party!
I just received FOIA’d data on stillbirths in Germany from my friend and colleague, Prof. Christof Kuhbandner and share them with his permission. The picture they reveal is jaw-dropping. The graph below shows the monthly percent change in stillbirths in 2021-2022 compared to the monthly average from 2019-2020:
Comparison with earlier years is problematic because Germany changed the way it defined stillbirths at the end of 2018.
[Update: Kuhbandner and a collaborator released a pre-print over the summer with a focus on excess mortality, but they also have the following figure on the stillbirth rate:
And Germany's Federal Institute for Population Research released a working paper, which studied fertility in Germany and Sweden and found that "there is a strong association between the onset of vaccination programmes and the fertility decline nine months after." They also examined an association with COVID morbidity and mortality and with unemployment and did not find any. Their hand-waving explanation is that there was some kind of behavioral shift in pregnancy decisions around the timing of the jab rollout, but they offer no evidence to support that and it is also not consistent with the sustained decline in birth rates they find so far in all of 2022.]
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The picture from Germany is consistent with this graph on stillbirths and neonatal deaths in Scotland:
The German stillbirth data is also consistent with this graph showing a big decline in German births in the first quarter of 2022:
Here is a troubling table of US monthly birth rates in 2022 compared to 2021 in US states, courtesy of baizuobo:
Igor Chudov also reported on a 23% decline in the Taiwanese birth rate in May, 2022 compared to the previous year. Similar troubling declines can be seen in this table, also shared on Twitter by an account under the name @BirthGauge:
The best one can say about this table is that we don’t see declines in every country, which leaves some room for hope that the declines are not due to the mass injections of novel gene therapy technology but rather to something else. I know I’m grasping at straws. But it’s all I’ve got to cling to right now.
UPDATE, NOV 19 2022: @BirthGauge released an updated table:
[UPDATE: Around the same time I published this, el gato malo published an excellent analysis of Swedish birth data, which are not confounded with lockdown measures since they didn’t have lockdowns. It’s worth a read.]
The official comment that accompanied the data file Christof received was:
"We would also like to point out that the definition of stillbirths was last changed as of 11/1/2018, which tends to increase the numbers. Until October 2018, a child was considered stillborn if it weighed at least 500 grams. Since November 2018, a stillbirth is also considered when the child was below this weight limit but had reached the 24th week of pregnancy.
Further, we note that the results for 2021 and 2022 are preliminary as well as accrued by date of reporting. Compared to the final results, which reflect the date of deaths, these preliminary ones tend to be too low at the beginning of the year and too high at the end of the year."In addition, Christof wanted me to be sure to note that:
In other words, the stillbirth data for the years 2021 and 2022 are based on the reporting date and not on the death date, that is, the time trend has to be interpreted with caution. Especially for the number of stillbirths for the most recent months, there might still be late registrations, which would things make even worse
Here is a link to the source data for the German stillbirths from the FOIA. An Excel file with data on live births is here or you can get from original source here.
Re "big decline in German mortality", I think you meant "births".
Thrilled to see FOIA powers deployed.. best asymmetric leverage we individuals have... bravo!